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AbstractA detailed analysis of the available literature and the aerospace manufacturing industry has identiﬁed a lack of cost estimation techniques to forecast advanced manufacturing technology development effort and hardware cost. To respond, this article presents two parametric ‘Constructive Technology Development Cost Models’ (COTECHMO). The COTECHMO Resources model is the ﬁrst and is capable of forecasting aerospace advanced manufacturing technology development effort in personhours. When statistically analyzed, this model had an outstanding R-squared value of 98% and a high F-value of 106.65, validating model signiﬁcance. The general model accuracy was tested with 53% of the forecast data falling within 20% of the actual. The second, the COTECHMO Direct Cost model is capable of forecasting the development cost of the aerospace advanced manufacturing technology process hardware. This model had an inferior R-squared value of 76% and an F-value of 5.59, although each was still valid to determine model signiﬁcance. However, the Direct Cost model accuracy exceeded the Resources model, with 93% of the forecast data falling within 20% of the actual. The article concludes with recommendations for future research, including suggestions for further enhancement of each model veriﬁcation and validation, within and outside of the supporting organization.
CitationJones MB, Webb PF, Summers MD, Baguley PB (2014) 'COTECHMO: The Constructive Technology Development Cost Model', Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics, 7 (1), pp.48-69.
PublisherTaylor & Francis