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    COTECHMO: The Constructive Technology Development Cost Model

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    Authors
    Jones, Mark B.
    Webb, Phil F.
    Summers, Mark D.
    Baguley, Paul
    Affiliation
    Cranfield University
    Issue Date
    2014-04-03
    Subjects
    Cost Modelling
    
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    A detailed analysis of the available literature and the aerospace manufacturing industry has identified a lack of cost estimation techniques to forecast advanced manufacturing technology development effort and hardware cost. To respond, this article presents two parametric ‘Constructive Technology Development Cost Models’ (COTECHMO). The COTECHMO Resources model is the first and is capable of forecasting aerospace advanced manufacturing technology development effort in personhours. When statistically analyzed, this model had an outstanding R-squared value of 98% and a high F-value of 106.65, validating model significance. The general model accuracy was tested with 53% of the forecast data falling within 20% of the actual. The second, the COTECHMO Direct Cost model is capable of forecasting the development cost of the aerospace advanced manufacturing technology process hardware. This model had an inferior R-squared value of 76% and an F-value of 5.59, although each was still valid to determine model significance. However, the Direct Cost model accuracy exceeded the Resources model, with 93% of the forecast data falling within 20% of the actual. The article concludes with recommendations for future research, including suggestions for further enhancement of each model verification and validation, within and outside of the supporting organization. ​​​​​​​
    Citation
    Jones MB, Webb PF, Summers MD, Baguley PB (2014) 'COTECHMO: The Constructive Technology Development Cost Model', Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics, 7 (1), pp.48-69.
    Publisher
    Taylor & Francis
    Journal
    Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10547/623956
    DOI
    10.1080/1941658X.2014.891085
    Additional Links
    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1941658X.2014.891085
    Type
    Article
    Language
    en
    ISSN
    1941-658X
    EISSN
    2160-4746
    Sponsors
    Airbus
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1080/1941658X.2014.891085
    Scopus Count
    Collections
    Business and management

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