Risk prediction and assessment: duration, infections, and death toll of the COVID-19 and its impact on China’s economy
Li, Rita Yi Man
Crabbe, M. James C.
Baker, Julien S.
AffiliationUniversity of Bedfordshire
European University Cyprus
Polytechnic Institute of Porto
Rajamangala University of Technology Rattanakosin
University of Sydney
Hong Kong Shue Yan University
Hong Kong Baptist University
University of Saskatchewan
University of Adelaide
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AbstractThis study first analyzes the national and global infection status of the Coronavirus Disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19). It then uses the trend comparison method to predict the inflection point and Key Point of the COVID-19 virus by comparison with the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) graphs, followed by using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, Autoregressive Moving Average model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors, and Holt Winter’s Exponential Smoothing to predict infections, deaths, and GDP in China. Finally, it discusses and assesses the impact of these results. This study argues that even if the risks and impacts of the epidemic are significant, China’s economy will continue to maintain steady development.
CitationYue X-G, Shao X-F, Li RYM, Crabbe MJC, Mi L, Hu S, Baker JS, Liu L, Dong K (2020) 'Risk Prediction and Assessment: Duration, Infections, and Death Toll of the COVID-19 and Its Impact on China’s Economy', Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13 (4), pp.66-93.
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