Economic losses of carbon emissions from circum-Arctic permafrost regions under RCP-SSP scenarios
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Affiliation
Beijing Normal UniversityShandong University
Cambridge University
University of Oxford
University of Bedfordshire
Issue Date
2018-12-20
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Under rapid Arctic warming, the vast amount of labile organic carbon stored in Arctic permafrost soils poses a potentially huge threat. Thawing permafrost will release hundreds of billion tons of soil carbon into the atmosphere in the form of CO2 and CH4 that would further intensify global warming and bring more challenges to human society. In this study, we use the PInc-PanTher model to estimate carbon emissions from thawing permafrost in the circum-Arctic during 2010-2100 followed by the PAGE09 integrated assessment model to evaluate the net economic losses caused by these permafrost carbon emissions. Our results show that in terms of net present value (NPV), the release of CO2 and CH4 from circum-Arctic permafrost will generate estimated net economic losses of US$2.5 trillion (5-95% range: 0.3-11.2 US$ trillion) under the RCP4.5-SPP1 scenario and US$12.7 trillion (5-95% range: 1.6-41.8 US$ trillion) under the RCP8.5-SPP3 scenario between 2010-2100, which contribute ~4.9% and ~6.4% respectively of net economic losses of global carbon emissions.Citation
Chen Y, Liu A, Zhang Z, Hope C, Crabbe MJC (2018) 'Economic losses of carbon emissions from circum-Arctic permafrost regions under RCP-SSP scenarios', Science of the Total Environment, 658, pp.1064-1068.Publisher
ElsevierJournal
Science of the Total EnvironmentAdditional Links
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718351787Type
ArticleLanguage
enISSN
0048-9697ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.299
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