• Risk management analysis for novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China

      Yue, Xiao-Guang; Shao, Xue-Feng; Li, Rita Yi Man; Crabbe, M. James C.; Mi, Lili; Hu, Siyan; Baker, Julien S.; Liang, Gang; European University Cyprus; Polytechnic Institute of Porto; et al. (MDPI, 2020-02-03)
      Recently, a novel coronavirus pneumonia (2019–nCoV) outbreak occurred in Wuhan, China, rapidly spreading first to the whole country, and then globally, causing widespread concern. From the perspectives of early warning and identification of risk, risk monitoring, and analysis, as well as risk management and handling, we propose corresponding solutions and recommendations, which include institutional cooperation, and to inform national and international policy-makers.
    • Risk prediction and assessment: duration, infections, and death toll of the COVID-19 and its impact on China’s economy

      Yue, Xiao-Guang; Shao, Xue-Feng; Li, Rita Yi Man; Crabbe, M. James C.; Mi, Lili; Hu, Siyan; Baker, Julien S.; Liu, Liting; Dong, Kechen; University of Bedfordshire; et al. (MDPI, 2020-04-03)
      This study first analyzes the national and global infection status of the Coronavirus Disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19). It then uses the trend comparison method to predict the inflection point and Key Point of the COVID-19 virus by comparison with the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) graphs, followed by using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, Autoregressive Moving Average model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors, and Holt Winter’s Exponential Smoothing to predict infections, deaths, and GDP in China. Finally, it discusses and assesses the impact of these results. This study argues that even if the risks and impacts of the epidemic are significant, China’s economy will continue to maintain steady development.