• The implications of fossil fuel supply constraints on climate change projections: a supply-side analysis

      Wang, Jianliang; Feng, Lianyong; Tang, Xu; Bentley, Yongmei; Höök, Mikael; China University of Petroleum; University of Bedfordshire; Uppsala University (Elsevier Ltd, 2016-05-17)
      Climate projections are based on emission scenarios. The emission scenarios used by the IPCC and by mainstream climate scientists are largely derived from the predicted demand for fossil fuels, and in our view take insufficient consideration of the constrained emissions that are likely due to the depletion of these fuels. This paper, by contrast, takes a supply-side view of CO emission, and generates two supply-driven emission scenarios based on a comprehensive investigation of likely long-term pathways of fossil fuel production drawn from peer-reviewed literature published since 2000. The potential rapid increases in the supply of the non-conventional fossil fuels are also investigated. Climate projections calculated in this paper indicate that the future atmospheric CO concentration will not exceed 610ppm in this century; and that the increase in global surface temperature will be lower than 2.6°C compared to pre-industrial level even if there is a significant increase in the production of non-conventional fossil fuels. Our results indicate therefore that the IPCC's climate projections overestimate the upper-bound of climate change. Furthermore, this paper shows that different production pathways of fossil fuels use, and different climate models, are the two main reasons for the significant differences in current literature on the topic.
    • Modelling India’s coal production with a negatively skewed curve-fitting model

      Wang, Jianliang; Bentley, Yongmei; Bentley, Roger; China University of Petroleum; University of Bedfordshire; Petroleum Analysis Centre (Springer Verlag (Germany), 2017-10-05)
      India’s coal demand is forecast to increase at a rapid pace in the future due to the country’s economic and population growth. Analyzing the scope for future production of India’s domestic coal resources, therefore, plays a vital role in the country’s development of sound energy policies. This paper presents a quantitative scenario analysis of India’s potential future coal production by using a negatively skewed curve-fitting model and a range of estimates of the country’s ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of coal. The results show that the resource base is sufficient for India’s coal production to keep increasing over the next few decades, to reach between 2400 and 3200 Mt/y at 2050, depending on the assumed value of URR. A further analysis shows that the high end of this range, which corresponds to our ‘GSI’ scenario, can be considered as the probable upper-bound to India’s domestic coal production. Comparison of production based on the ‘GSI’ scenario with India’s predicted demand shows that the domestic production of coal will be insufficient to meet the country’s rising coal demand, with the gap between demand and production increasing from its current value of about 268 Mt/y to reach 300 Mt/y in 2035, and 700 Mt/y by 2050. This increasing gap will be challenging for the energy security of India.
    • Modelling world natural gas production

      Wang, Jianliang; Bentley, Yongmei; ; China University of Petroleum; University of Bedfordshire (Elsevier, 2020-05-23)
      As the cleanest fossil fuel in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, natural gas demand is expected to increase rapidly in future due to its important role in the transition of the world energy system. In this case, understanding potential limits to future production of the world’s natural gas resources becomes increasingly important. This paper uses a modified multi-cycle generalized Weng model to forecast the long-term production of natural gas by region, and also globally. Both conventional and unconventional gas production are considered. Our results show that world natural gas production is likely to peak in the range 3.7 to 6.1 trillion cubic meters per year (tcm/y) between 2019 and 2060 depending on assumptions made on the size of the global ultimately recoverable resource (URR) of natural gas. A comparison of this paper’s forecasts with those from the scientific literature and from major energy institutes shows that the projection in this paper’s ‘high scenario’ can be seen as a likely upper-bound on future global natural gas production. To turn this upper-bound projection into reality, great efforts will be needed from the gas industry to discover more conventional and unconventional gas resources, and to make these recoverable.
    • Predicting monthly natural gas production in China using a novel grey seasonal model with particle swarm optimization

      Li, Nu; Wang, Jianliang; Wu, Lifeng; Bentley, Yongmei; China University of Petroleum; Hebei University of Engineering; University of Bedfordshire (Elsevier, 2020-10-22)
      Accurate prediction of short and medium-term monthly natural gas production in a country is the basis for understanding the supply capacity of natural gas in different months, and for the timely adjustment of natural gas production and import strategies. In China the monthly production of natural gas has obvious seasonal and cyclical variations, thus the use of a traditional grey prediction model is not very effective. As a result, a novel grey seasonal model is proposed in this paper. This is the Particle swarm optimized Fractional-order-accumulation non-homogenous discrete grey Seasonal Model (PFSM(1,1) model). This model enhances the adaptability to seasonal fluctuation data in two ways: the seasonal adjustment of the original data, and improvement of model self-adaptability. We use monthly natural gas production data of China for the period 2013-2018 as samples to predict those for the period 2019-2023. To demonstrate the PFSM(1,1) model does indeed exhibit better predictive capability, we also use the Holt–Winters model and a seasonal GM(1,1) model to predict monthly natural gas production, and compare the results with the model proposed here. The prediction results show that monthly natural gas production in China will continue to increase throughout the 2019-2023 period, that the peak-to-valley differences in monthly production values will also increase, and that the seasonal variations in production will become increasingly pronounced. Moreover, although Chinese production of natural gas is increasing, it will still be difficult to meet future demand, and hence the gap between supply and demand will increase year by year. We conclude that China needs to develop a more complete import plan for gas to meet expected natural gas consumption.
    • A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China

      Wang, Jianliang; Feng, Jiang-Xuan; Bentley, Yongmei; Feng, Lianyong; Qu, Hui; China University of Petroleum; University of Bedfordshire; Petroleum Industry Press (Springer, 2017-09-19)
      This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year (or 9.6 EJ/year), in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around 350 Bcm/year (or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year (or 91.9 EJ/year) around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI (energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found.