Challenges facing government revenue from the Nigerian oil industry: a system dynamics approach
AuthorsMusawa, Idris Abubakar
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AbstractExtractive industries (including oil, gas and mining) generally afford an opportunity for the host government to generate the revenue to fund sustainable growth and development. It is therefore not surprising for conventional economic theory to suggest this is a readily available revenue source for resource blessed countries. However, contrary to this reasonable expectation, several of these economies were found to be suffering a financial handicap. Nigeria, despite being the largest crude oil producer in Africa and the tenth largest in the world, has so far found realising the full financial benefits of this nature’s gift unattainable. Using both qualitative and quantitative data as well as grounded theory in the analysis of the qualitative data, this research work has been carried out to develop a model of Nigerian oil industry using System Dynamics modelling methodology in order to understand these challenges. Specifically, the research develops an System Dynamics model to capture and quantify the various potential revenue streams to the Nigerian government from the oil (petroleum) industry with the objective of providing an explanatory model of the causal factors and then using the model to construct policy experiments in order to evaluate policies that may optimise these revenues. Findings show that, the development of the model for the Nigerian oil industry was successfully undertaken. The model was used to evaluate two government policy interventions that were aimed at improving government revenue from the industry. Moreover, a range of alternative scenarios which suggested increase of transparency policy, reduction of rate of gas flare and reduction of time taken for repairs of vandalised facilities were used in the model. The relevant system actors in the Nigerian oil industry were impressed with the modelling idea, particularly in its ability to represents all the economic challenges facing the industry, which offered a better understanding of the system they are dealing with. Overall, the model was able to depict some potential policy points thus serving as a decision-making tool.
CitationMusawa, I.A. (2016) "Challenges facing government revenue from the Nigerian oil industry: a system dynamics approach". PhD Thesis. University of Bedfordshire.
PublisherUniversity of Bedfordshire
TypeThesis or dissertation
DescriptionA thesis submitted to the University of Bedfordshire in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy
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