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    A DST-based approach for construction project risk analysis

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    Authors
    Taroun, Abdulmaten
    Yang, J.B.
    Affiliation
    University of Bedfordshire
    Issue Date
    2013-04-03
    Subjects
    Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence
    risk analysis
    construction
    
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    Despite its huge potential in risk analysis, the Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) has not received enough attention in construction management. This paper presents a DST-based approach for structuring personal experience and professional judgment when assessing construction project risk. DST was innovatively used to tackle the problem of lacking sufficient information through enabling analysts to provide incomplete assessments. Risk cost is used as a common scale for measuring risk impact on the various project objectives, and the Evidential Reasoning algorithm is suggested as a novel alternative for aggregating individual assessments. A spreadsheet-based decision support system (DSS) was devised to facilitate the proposed approach. Four case studies were conducted to examine the approach's viability. Senior managers in four British construction companies tried the DSS and gave very promising feedback. The paper concludes that the proposed methodology may contribute to bridging the gap between theory and practice of construction risk assessment.
    Citation
    Taroun, A., Yang, J.B. (2013) 'A DST-based approach for construction project risk analysis' Journal of the Operational Research Society 64 (8):1221
    Publisher
    Palgrave MacMillan
    Journal
    Journal of the Operational Research Society
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10547/593714
    DOI
    10.1057/jors.2013.38
    Additional Links
    http://www.palgrave-journals.com/doifinder/10.1057/jors.2013.38
    Type
    Article
    Language
    en
    ISSN
    0160-5682
    1476-9360
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1057/jors.2013.38
    Scopus Count
    Collections
    Business and Information Systems Research Centre (BISC)

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