Construction risk modelling and assessment: insights from a literature review
Subjectsrisk assessment, risk modelling, risk cost, Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence, literature review.
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AbstractAlthough risk assessment is probably the most difficult component of the Risk Management process, it is potentially the most useful. A critical review of the literature published on the topic over the last 27 years has revealed significant results, summarized as follows. Variants of Probability-Impact modeling are predominant; while traditionally the focus was on objective probability gradually subjective probability has become dominant. Risk analysis of project duration or cost is prevalent; the analysis of project performance risk is hardly mentioned in literature. Further, no risk assessment approach was discovered that deploys a common scale to simultaneously assess the alternative impacts of a risk on the various project objectives. Most of the existing approaches provide a risk rating; very few actually quantify risk. The limitations of the existing theories and tools indicate the need for improved alternatives. We conclude that the use of ‘risk cost’ as a common scale within a belief-based decision making framework would be an innovative solution, overcoming current shortcomings and generally improving construction risk assessment.
CitationTaroun, A., Yang, J.B, Lowe, D. (2011) 'Construction Risk Modelling and Assessment: Insights from a Literature Review', The Built and Human Environment Review 4 (1)
PublisherBuilt & Human Environment Reivew
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