• On-line probability, complexity and randomness

      Chernov, Alexey; Shen, Alexander; Vereshchagin, Nikolai; Vovk, Vladimir (Springer, 2008)
      Classical probability theory considers probability distributions that assign probabilities to all events (at least in the finite case). However, there are natural situations where only part of the process is controlled by some probability distribution while for the other part we know only the set of possibilities without any probabilities assigned. We adapt the notions of algorithmic information theory (complexity, algorithmic randomness, martingales, a priori probability) to this framework and show that many classical results are still valid.
    • Prediction with advice of unknown number of experts

      Chernov, Alexey; Vovk, Vladimir (2010)
      In the framework of prediction with expert advice, we consider a recently introduced kind of regret bounds: the bounds that depend on the effective instead of nominal number of experts. In contrast to the NormalHedge bound, which mainly depends on the effective number of experts and also weakly depends on the nominal one, we obtain a bound that does not contain the nominal number of experts at all. We use the defensive forecasting method and introduce an application of defensive forecasting to multivalued supermartingales.
    • Prediction with expert advice under discounted loss

      Chernov, Alexey; Zhdanov, Fedor (Springer, 2010)
      We study prediction with expert advice in the setting where the losses are accumulated with some discounting and the impact of old losses can gradually vanish. We generalize the Aggregating Algorithm and the Aggregating Algorithm for Regression, propose a new variant of exponentially weighted average algorithm, and prove bounds on the cumulative discounted loss
    • Prediction with expert evaluators’ advice

      Chernov, Alexey; Vovk, Vladimir (Springer, 2009)
      We introduce a new protocol for prediction with expert advice in which each expert evaluates the learner’s and his own performance using a loss function that may change over time and may be different from the loss functions used by the other experts. The learner’s goal is to perform better or not much worse than each expert, as evaluated by that expert, for all experts simultaneously. If the loss functions used by the experts are all proper scoring rules and all mixable, we show that the defensive forecasting algorithm enjoys the same performance guarantee as that attainable by the Aggregating Algorithm in the standard setting and known to be optimal. This result is also applied to the case of “specialist” experts. In this case, the defensive forecasting algorithm reduces to a simple modification of the Aggregating Algorithm.
    • Supermartingales in prediction with expert advice

      Chernov, Alexey; Kalnishkan, Yuri; Zhdanov, Fedor; Vovk, Vladimir (Elsevier, 2010)
      The paper applies the method of defensive forecasting, based on the use of game-theoretic supermartingales, to prediction with expert advice. In the traditional setting of a countable number of experts and a finite number of outcomes, the Defensive Forecasting Algorithm is very close to the well-known Aggregating Algorithm. Not only the performance guarantees but also the predictions are the same for these two methods of fundamentally different nature. The paper also discusses a new setting where the experts can give advice conditional on the learner's future decision. Both the algorithms can be adapted to the new setting and give the same performance guarantees as in the traditional setting. Finally, an application of defensive forecasting to a setting with several loss functions is outlined.