Modelling India’s coal production with a negatively skewed curve-fitting model

5.00
Hdl Handle:
http://hdl.handle.net/10547/622802
Title:
Modelling India’s coal production with a negatively skewed curve-fitting model
Authors:
Wang, Jianliang ( 0000-0001-7037-9368 ) ; Bentley, Yongmei ( 0000-0002-4597-4664 ) ; Bentley, Roger
Abstract:
India’s coal demand is forecast to increase at a rapid pace in the future due to the country’s economic and population growth. Analyzing the scope for future production of India’s domestic coal resources, therefore, plays a vital role in the country’s development of sound energy policies. This paper presents a quantitative scenario analysis of India’s potential future coal production by using a negatively skewed curve-fitting model and a range of estimates of the country’s ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of coal. The results show that the resource base is sufficient for India’s coal production to keep increasing over the next few decades, to reach between 2400 and 3200 Mt/y at 2050, depending on the assumed value of URR. A further analysis shows that the high end of this range, which corresponds to our ‘GSI’ scenario, can be considered as the probable upper-bound to India’s domestic coal production. Comparison of production based on the ‘GSI’ scenario with India’s predicted demand shows that the domestic production of coal will be insufficient to meet the country’s rising coal demand, with the gap between demand and production increasing from its current value of about 268 Mt/y to reach 300 Mt/y in 2035, and 700 Mt/y by 2050. This increasing gap will be challenging for the energy security of India.
Affiliation:
China University of Petroleum; University of Bedfordshire; Petroleum Analysis Centre
Citation:
Wang J, Bentley Y, Bentley R (2017) 'Modelling India’s coal production with a negatively skewed curve-fitting model', Natural Resources Research, 27 (3), pp.365-378.
Publisher:
Springer Verlag (Germany)
Journal:
Natural Resources Research
Issue Date:
5-Oct-2017
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10547/622802
DOI:
10.1007/s11053-017-9356-1
Additional Links:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11053-017-9356-1
Type:
Article
Language:
en
ISSN:
1520-7439
EISSN:
1573-8981
Appears in Collections:
Business and management

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorWang, Jianliangen
dc.contributor.authorBentley, Yongmeien
dc.contributor.authorBentley, Rogeren
dc.date.accessioned2018-07-17T11:07:23Z-
dc.date.available2018-07-17T11:07:23Z-
dc.date.issued2017-10-05-
dc.identifier.citationWang J, Bentley Y, Bentley R (2017) 'Modelling India’s coal production with a negatively skewed curve-fitting model', Natural Resources Research, 27 (3), pp.365-378.en
dc.identifier.issn1520-7439-
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11053-017-9356-1-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10547/622802-
dc.description.abstractIndia’s coal demand is forecast to increase at a rapid pace in the future due to the country’s economic and population growth. Analyzing the scope for future production of India’s domestic coal resources, therefore, plays a vital role in the country’s development of sound energy policies. This paper presents a quantitative scenario analysis of India’s potential future coal production by using a negatively skewed curve-fitting model and a range of estimates of the country’s ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of coal. The results show that the resource base is sufficient for India’s coal production to keep increasing over the next few decades, to reach between 2400 and 3200 Mt/y at 2050, depending on the assumed value of URR. A further analysis shows that the high end of this range, which corresponds to our ‘GSI’ scenario, can be considered as the probable upper-bound to India’s domestic coal production. Comparison of production based on the ‘GSI’ scenario with India’s predicted demand shows that the domestic production of coal will be insufficient to meet the country’s rising coal demand, with the gap between demand and production increasing from its current value of about 268 Mt/y to reach 300 Mt/y in 2035, and 700 Mt/y by 2050. This increasing gap will be challenging for the energy security of India.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherSpringer Verlag (Germany)en
dc.relation.urlhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11053-017-9356-1en
dc.rightsGreen - can archive pre-print and post-print or publisher's version/PDF-
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/*
dc.subjectcoal productionen
dc.subjectultimately recoverable resourcesen
dc.subjectH221 Energy Resourcesen
dc.subjectIndiaen
dc.titleModelling India’s coal production with a negatively skewed curve-fitting modelen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.identifier.eissn1573-8981-
dc.contributor.departmentChina University of Petroleumen
dc.contributor.departmentUniversity of Bedfordshireen
dc.contributor.departmentPetroleum Analysis Centreen
dc.identifier.journalNatural Resources Researchen
dc.date.updated2018-07-17T10:57:13Z-
dc.description.noteUnfortunately Springer do not permit us to archive the final published pdf, we need the post-print (ie final draft post-refereeing) to be eligble for REF. RVO 16/7/18 correct version suppled 17/7/18-
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