The implications of fossil fuel supply constraints on climate change projections: a supply-side analysis

2.50
Hdl Handle:
http://hdl.handle.net/10547/621923
Title:
The implications of fossil fuel supply constraints on climate change projections: a supply-side analysis
Authors:
Wang, Jianling; Feng, Lianyong; Tang, Xu; Bentley, Yongmei ( 0000-0002-4597-4664 ) ; Höök, Mikael
Abstract:
Climate projections are based on emission scenarios. The emission scenarios used by the IPCC and by mainstream climate scientists are largely derived from the predicted demand for fossil fuels, and in our view take insufficient consideration of the constrained emissions that are likely due to the depletion of these fuels. This paper, by contrast, takes a supply-side view of CO emission, and generates two supply-driven emission scenarios based on a comprehensive investigation of likely long-term pathways of fossil fuel production drawn from peer-reviewed literature published since 2000. The potential rapid increases in the supply of the non-conventional fossil fuels are also investigated. Climate projections calculated in this paper indicate that the future atmospheric CO concentration will not exceed 610ppm in this century; and that the increase in global surface temperature will be lower than 2.6°C compared to pre-industrial level even if there is a significant increase in the production of non-conventional fossil fuels. Our results indicate therefore that the IPCC's climate projections overestimate the upper-bound of climate change. Furthermore, this paper shows that different production pathways of fossil fuels use, and different climate models, are the two main reasons for the significant differences in current literature on the topic.
Affiliation:
China University of Petroleum; University of Bedfordshire; Uppsala University
Citation:
Wang J., Feng L., Tang X., Bentley Y., Höök M. (2015) 'The implications of fossil fuel supply constraints on climate change projections: a supply-side analysis', Futures.
Publisher:
Elsevier Ltd
Journal:
Futures
Issue Date:
17-May-2016
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10547/621923
DOI:
10.1016/j.futures.2016.04.007
Additional Links:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328715300690
Type:
Article
Language:
en
ISSN:
0016-3287
Appears in Collections:
Business and management

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorWang, Jianlingen
dc.contributor.authorFeng, Lianyongen
dc.contributor.authorTang, Xuen
dc.contributor.authorBentley, Yongmeien
dc.contributor.authorHöök, Mikaelen
dc.date.accessioned2017-01-09T13:03:08Z-
dc.date.available2017-01-09T13:03:08Z-
dc.date.issued2016-05-17-
dc.identifier.citationWang J., Feng L., Tang X., Bentley Y., Höök M. (2015) 'The implications of fossil fuel supply constraints on climate change projections: a supply-side analysis', Futures.en
dc.identifier.issn0016-3287-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.futures.2016.04.007-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10547/621923-
dc.description.abstractClimate projections are based on emission scenarios. The emission scenarios used by the IPCC and by mainstream climate scientists are largely derived from the predicted demand for fossil fuels, and in our view take insufficient consideration of the constrained emissions that are likely due to the depletion of these fuels. This paper, by contrast, takes a supply-side view of CO emission, and generates two supply-driven emission scenarios based on a comprehensive investigation of likely long-term pathways of fossil fuel production drawn from peer-reviewed literature published since 2000. The potential rapid increases in the supply of the non-conventional fossil fuels are also investigated. Climate projections calculated in this paper indicate that the future atmospheric CO concentration will not exceed 610ppm in this century; and that the increase in global surface temperature will be lower than 2.6°C compared to pre-industrial level even if there is a significant increase in the production of non-conventional fossil fuels. Our results indicate therefore that the IPCC's climate projections overestimate the upper-bound of climate change. Furthermore, this paper shows that different production pathways of fossil fuels use, and different climate models, are the two main reasons for the significant differences in current literature on the topic.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherElsevier Ltden
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328715300690en
dc.rightsGreen - can archive pre-print and post-print or publisher's version/PDF-
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/*
dc.subjectsupply constraintsen
dc.subjectemission scenariosen
dc.subjectclimate projectionsen
dc.subjectfossil fuel resourcesen
dc.subjectemissionsen
dc.subjectclimate changeen
dc.subjectH223 Environmental Impact Assessmenten
dc.titleThe implications of fossil fuel supply constraints on climate change projections: a supply-side analysisen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentChina University of Petroleumen
dc.contributor.departmentUniversity of Bedfordshireen
dc.contributor.departmentUppsala Universityen
dc.identifier.journalFuturesen
dc.date.updated2017-01-09T11:59:42Z-
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