Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence: potential usage for decision making and risk analysis in construction project management

2.50
Hdl Handle:
http://hdl.handle.net/10547/251021
Title:
Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence: potential usage for decision making and risk analysis in construction project management
Authors:
Taroun, Abdulmaten; Yang, J.B.
Abstract:
Decision making and risk analysis are essential tasks along the project life cycle. Researchers have researched different theories and have come up with various tools and methodologies to assist practitioners in assessing risk and making more informative decisions in the case of uncertainty. Many Decision Support Systems (DSSs) are available for practitioners. Unfortunately, in reality such tools are rarely used. Instead, practitioners used to relay upon their personal judgment, past experience, intuition and gut feeling. Having conducted an extensive literature review, the authors identified the limitations of the extensively used Probability theory (PT), Fuzzy Sets Theory (FST) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for decision making and risk assessment in construction industry. We believe that Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) could provide a valid alternative. Incomplete information and ignorance, which are typical problems in construction industry, could be better handled by using distributed belief assessments. Dempster rule of evidence combination can be used for aggregating risk assessments which may be a novel alternative to the simple averaging procedures adopted by researchers when deploying the FST.
Citation:
Taroun, A.,Yang, J.B, Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence: Potential usage for decision making and risk analysis in construction project management, 2011, 4 (1) The Built & Human Environment Review
Publisher:
Built & Human Environment Review
Journal:
The Built & Human Environment Review
Issue Date:
2011
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10547/251021
Additional Links:
http://www.tbher.org/index.php/tbher/article/view/51
Type:
Article
Language:
en
ISSN:
1759-0574
Appears in Collections:
Business and Information Systems Research Centre (BISC)

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorTaroun, Abdulmatenen_GB
dc.contributor.authorYang, J.B.en_GB
dc.date.accessioned2012-11-05T16:00:39Z-
dc.date.available2012-11-05T16:00:39Z-
dc.date.issued2011-
dc.identifier.citationTaroun, A.,Yang, J.B, Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence: Potential usage for decision making and risk analysis in construction project management, 2011, 4 (1) The Built & Human Environment Reviewen_GB
dc.identifier.issn1759-0574-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10547/251021-
dc.description.abstractDecision making and risk analysis are essential tasks along the project life cycle. Researchers have researched different theories and have come up with various tools and methodologies to assist practitioners in assessing risk and making more informative decisions in the case of uncertainty. Many Decision Support Systems (DSSs) are available for practitioners. Unfortunately, in reality such tools are rarely used. Instead, practitioners used to relay upon their personal judgment, past experience, intuition and gut feeling. Having conducted an extensive literature review, the authors identified the limitations of the extensively used Probability theory (PT), Fuzzy Sets Theory (FST) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for decision making and risk assessment in construction industry. We believe that Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) could provide a valid alternative. Incomplete information and ignorance, which are typical problems in construction industry, could be better handled by using distributed belief assessments. Dempster rule of evidence combination can be used for aggregating risk assessments which may be a novel alternative to the simple averaging procedures adopted by researchers when deploying the FST.en_GB
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherBuilt & Human Environment Reviewen_GB
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.tbher.org/index.php/tbher/article/view/51en_GB
dc.subjectdecision makingen_GB
dc.subjectrisk assessmenten_GB
dc.subjectconstruction projecten_GB
dc.subjectDempster-Shafer theory of evidenceen_GB
dc.subjectDempster rule of evidence combinationen_GB
dc.titleDempster-Shafer theory of evidence: potential usage for decision making and risk analysis in construction project managementen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.identifier.journalThe Built & Human Environment Reviewen_GB
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